Archive: Term of service 06 October 2006–04 October 2010

Speech
Stockholm 15 October 2009
Sten Tolgfors, Minister for Defence

Speech by the Minister for Defence Sten Tolgfors at the Swedish Presidency Conference on Environment, Climate Change and Securit

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MINISTERIAL ADDRESS
STEN TOLGFORS, MINISTER FOR DEFENCE

The European Union and the rest of the world must increasingly take into account and respond to new and a wider range of potential security threats and challenges. Environment, climate change and energy. These issues are no longer only national issues but cross-border and global. As pointed out in the latest Swedish Parliamentary Defence Report, they are becoming elements of a wider definition of security.

Let me give a few examples as a starting point.

Firstly, Sudan and Darfur. There seem to be an increased number of indications that the impact of climate change, in particular of the past 20 years of the Sahelian drought, has resulted in less land for both farming and herding. Growing tensions were exploited by the Sudanese Government, who used tribal militias as a means of keeping the rebels at bay in Darfur. Instability in Darfur spilled over into Chad. Eventually, the world reacted with massive humanitarian aid and mediation efforts. The EU contributed with forces, including a Swedish contingent, to UN's peacekeeping operation. That helped stabilize the situation, but the country remains at risk.

Secondly, for SIDS, Small Island Developing States and other low lying coastal regions, climate change is a question of sheer survival. A rise in sea level of one metre or more - a future reality given current trends - will bring grave consequences. In the Caribbean and Pacific Islands, more than 50 per cent of the population lives in low-lying areas within 1.5 kilometres of the coast.

Thirdly, the melting of the sea cap in the Arctic Ocean may open up new areas for international shipping and for exploitation of natural resources. In our part of the world, this has been an often-cited example of a 'tipping point' in the relationship between climate change and security.

If we allow the current trends continue to unfold, they have consequences that affect us all. Let me mention a few:

  • Large-scale migration as drought and flooding make it difficult for people to support themselves. A recent study has shown that some crop yields in 2050 will be only half of the 2000 levels as a result of drought and changing weather patterns.
  • The deterioration of living conditions can be expected to lead to competition for remaining renewable natural resources. That would increase the pressure on the environment.
  • More food insecurity would fan existing tensions in vulnerable parts of the world, such as Sudan, Afghanistan and Somalia. Conflicts increase the stress on the environment even further.

There is consensus that environmental problems are rarely the sole cause of a conflict. But they are often a contributing factor, a threat multiplier that worsens already existing threats caused by poverty, weak institutions for resource management and conflict resolution. We need to know more about the linkage between climate change and conflict dynamics.

We must also realize that the extent and consequences of natural disasters are partly in human control, even though climate change increases the stakes. In the 1980s, Oxfam and the Red Cross published a book called "Natural disasters, the result of man" ("Naturkatastrofer människans verk"). They argue that the problem is not that volcanoes erupt or that river floods. They tend to do so regularly. The problem arises because people due to poverty have to live in areas repeatedly affected. This book was published in the 1980:s. Its ideas can be reviewed and used in other parts of the world and not just developing countries. We need to look into social and economic development, fight poverty and strengthen the social dimension to handle crises.

I believe that the ingenuity of man is a counterbalancing factor. Faced with overwhelming problems, human beings tend to cooperate, because we have to. The sharing of common water resources, such as the Nile River Basin and the Okavango River Basin are examples of this.

New sea-routes and access to new natural resources in the Arctic will contribute to economic growth and regional integration, provided that the fragile Arctic environment can be protected from damage. The Arctic Council provides a forum for policy discussion and makes cooperation possible among the Arctic states. We need to build on that example and create more institutions that can function as tools to turn the so called 'threat multipliers' into 'threat minimisers'. Such a turn-around would also lead us away from national or regional zero-sum game thinking.

To achieve this, we need to build more knowledge. The UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon in the first ever UN report on climate change and security, to the special climate summit in New York has underscored this need.

Therefore, I today task the Swedish Defence Research Board, FOI, to study and assess, jointly with the scientific community in Sweden and in the EU, the linkage between climate change and security.

I want FOI to provide us with policy recommendations on, for example:

  • how to improve our watch list of potential functional and geographic hot spots to improve our preparedness for prevention and response;
  • how civilian and military missions can be planned and executed in ways that reduce, rather than enhance, the negative linkage between climate change and security;
  • how to best create transparency, awareness and preparedness through the linking of local, regional and global surveillance and monitoring systems;
  • how our search and rescue functions can be improved and used if disaster strikes in, for example, the Arctic.
  • how military resources can assist civilian agencies in case of natural or human induces catastrophes.

These are only a few issues and I am confident that the study will be able to identify many more.

While improving our knowledge we should also look into a number of issues of a more practical and immediate kind.

- We can sharpen our crisis management capabilities and instruments to deal with possible security implications of climate change;

- national and regional early warning systems could include data and analysis of societies and regions at risk from climate change. We must support and cooperate with similar endeavours elsewhere, not least with the UN.

- The concepts and plans for our missions, both civilian and military, should be shaped by our increasing understanding of the linkage between climate change and security. This is in line with the EU's comprehensive approach to crisis management.

- We are already looking into the effects of carrying out civilian missions and military operations in climate-stressed environments. For example, we are bringing in teams that can assess the environmental situation on the ground and ensure that we ourselves do not cause any harm or damage as we move into fragile areas.

I am also here today as a representative of the Swedish EU Presidency. I am very pleased that the EU is taking on this challenge. The EU pioneered a report to the European Council in March 2008 by the High Representative and the Commission. Under the Swedish Presidency, a report with council conclusions on the implementation of the EU's work on climate change and security will be presented to the Council. Recommendations will be made for EU's future work. FOI´s study will make a valuable contribution in this context.

This conference will provide stimulus and input to EU´s report to the Council and help us stake out the future course. That's why your presence here in Stockholm is so important - and greatly appreciated.

Thank you.