Sikte på 2-gradersmålet - Hur når vi dit?
Den 29 november presenterar IEA:s chefsekonom, Dr. Fatih Birol, World Energy Outlook 2010 vid ett seminarium på Näringsdepartementet. Rapporten omfattar för första gången ett scenario som visar utvecklingen av energiförsörjningen och klimatpåverkande gaser utifrån den politiska överenskommelse som antogs av ett antal länder i Köpenhamn. Den omfattar också ett alternativt scenario som visar vilka omvälvande förändringar av energisystemet som skulle behövas för att nå 2-gradersmålet.
Inför seminariet intervjuades IEA:s chefsekonom, Dr. Fatih Birol. Här kan du läsa intervjun.
- You are currently on the road introducing the new WEO for policymakers, industry and environment organisations. So far, where have you been and how has the message of the WEO been received in different countries?
Since the 9th of November, when the WEO 2010 was launched officially in London, I have been travelling to various capitals in response to invitations from the public and private sector to present the key findings of the latest edition of IEA's flagship publication. To learn more on how the messages from the WEO 2010 are being received in the different countries, you can consult our website however, I can already tell you that the WEO 2010 has received unprecedented media coverage and various opinion leaders have commended the critical analytical insights the WEO 2010 delivers about trends in energy demand and supply and what they mean for energy security, environmental protection and economic development.
- The message in the conclusions is clear: to achieve the 2 degree target more action from governments around the world is needed. Could you please list three actions which you believe are necessary for stablising the global greenhouse gas emissions?
Indeed, reaching the 2°C goal would first of all require a phenomenal policy push by governments around the world. An indicator of just how big an effort is needed is the rate of decline in carbon intensity - the amount of CO2 emitted per dollar of GDP - required in the 450 Scenario. Intensity would have to fall in 2008-2020 at twice the rate of 1990-2008; between 2020 and 2035, the rate would have to be almost four times faster. Secondly the WEO 2010 demonstrates that phasing out fossil-fuel consumption subsidies could represent a crucial and integral building block for tackling climate change. Thirdly the WEO 2010 shows that ten policies relating to energy efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS implemented in just five countries/regions - China, the European Union, the United States, India and Japan - account for 45% of emissions reductions in 2020 and 54% in 2035.
- Fossil fuels subsidies are mentioned as one of the main obstacles for achieving the target. Could you please clarify which subsidies we are talking about here?
The WEO 2010 focuses on energy subsidies that encourage over-consumption by reducing the price of fossil fuels below the full cost of supply. These subsidies remain commonplace in many countries and they result in an economically inefficient allocation of resources and market distortions, while often failing to meet their intended objectives. Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies that artificially lower energy prices encourage wasteful consumption, exacerbate energy-price volatility by blurring market signals, incentivise fuel adulteration and smuggling, and undermine the competitiveness of renewables and more efficient energy technologies. You can find out more about our definitions and methodology at our website however, I want to already highlight that phasing out fossil-fuel consumption subsidies could represent a crucial and integral building block for tackling climate change. The WEO 2010 shows that a complete phase-out of fossil fuel consumption subsidies would reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 5.8%, or 2 Gt, by 2020, which amounts to a significant share of the abatement needed to be on track to limit the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius.
- In the WEO2010 it states that the Copenhagen accord will cost governments 1 trillion dollar - how come?
The WEO 2010 shows that even if the commitments under the Copenhagen Accord were fully implemented, the emissions reductions that would be needed after 2020 would cost more than if more ambitious earlier targets had been pledged. The emissions reductions that those commitments would yield by 2020 are such that much bigger reductions would be needed thereafter to get on track to meet the 2°C goal. In the 450 Scenario of the WEO 2010, the additional spending on low-carbon energy technologies (business investment and consumer spending) amounts to $18 trillion (in year-2009 dollars) more than in the Current Policies Scenario in the period 2010-2035 and the additional spending compared with the Current Policies Scenario to 2030 is $11.6 trillion - about $1 trillion more than we estimated last year. In addition, global GDP would be reduced in 2030 by 1.9%, compared with last year's estimate of 0.9%. Once again, these differences are explained by the deeper, faster cuts in emissions needed after 2020, caused by the slower pace of change in energy supply and use in the earlier period.
- What is the role of a small country like Sweden? Today we have the highest rate renewables in the EU and also the most ambitious target for 2020.
Sweden already achieved a lot through impressive energy efficiency improvements and high penetration of low-carbon technologies, and as such is a role model for many countries. Sweden can continue to follow this path and can also share its experiences with others.
- Finally, if you were allowed to guess, which is the main topic in WEO2020?
It is difficult to say what the main topic will be, but I hope that energy poverty will not need to be a main topic in WEO 2020.
Vad är The International Energy Agency (IEA)?
IEA bildades 1974 som ett samarbete mellan OECD-länder för att kunna snabbt och effektivt hantera och reducera sitt beroende av olja. IEA har idag 26 st medlemmar. Basen för medlemmarnas samverkan uttrycks i deras "Shared goals". Medlemmarnas energiministrar träffas vart annat år och vid dessa tillfällen gör man en avstämning av prioriteringarna för arbetet vilket också tillkännages i en gemensam kommunike.