Utrikesministerns anförande vid Tallinn University den 9 november
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Utrikesministerns anförande vid Tallinn University den 9 november. Det talade ordet gäller.
Dear Madam Aksamitowska, dear students,
It is an honour to speak to you today. Thank you for your hospitality.
I think your university says a lot about Estonia and about the path that you have chosen as a people and as a nation since the end of the Cold War.
In 1988, the Estonian Institute of Humanities – which later became part of this university – was established.
It was the first private university in this part of Europe, it introduced Western thought in the course literature, and it served as a space for independent thought at a time when academic life was still constrained by an authoritarian system.
This is a very concrete reminder that academic freedom is more than simply a privilege enjoyed by universities. It is one of the foundations on which free societies are built.
* * *
Today, I want to talk about European security – our common security. I will both begin and end on Ukraine.
When I scrolled through Instagram a few weeks ago, I saw the image of a little girl named Angelina. I imagine that some of you saw the same post.
She was wearing red overalls with sneakers that her mother Inna had carefully tied before they set off to the park that morning. Her head was tilted to one side.
It brought back memories of how my own daughter used to look when she fell asleep behind me in the child seat as we biked from our home to my parents’ house.
But Angelina’s head was not tilted to the side because she had fallen asleep, but because a Russian drone had extinguished both her life and that of her mother.
Ukrainians wake up to news like this almost every day.
And I think that the coming months and years will tell whether Europeans acted – or failed to act – when war once again raged on our continent. Either way, history will judge us.
* * *
Another place that I used to pass with my daughter in a stroller or when I was out jogging was Rinkaby, close to my hometown Kristianstad in southern Sweden, where Baltic soldiers were detained and later extradited after the Second World War.
For those shameful acts, Sweden owes Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania a debt of honour. History has judged us for that.
Still, there has always been a bond between our peoples that the mistakes of our Governments could never break.
An entire Swedish town – Eksjö – gathered for the largest demonstration in its history to protest against the extradition of Baltic soldiers.
More than 30 000 Estonians came to Sweden during and after the Second World War to build new homes for themselves. Many of them have made crucial contributions to Swedish society.
And hundreds and even thousands of Swedes gathered every Monday at Norrmalmstorg in central Stockholm in support of the Baltic states.
Today, this weekly demonstration called the Monday Movement has reappeared in support of Ukraine.
* * *
Since Estonia restored its independence in 1991, you have truly led by example and shown the way for other nations striving towards freedom and prosperity. You have become one of the most technologically advanced, least corrupt, and best-educated societies in Europe and in the world.
As Lennart Meri said when he first spoke to the NATO Council in 1992: “Politics is, in our modern age, a factory which produces the future. And the Baltic states are the experimental workshop and research laboratory of this factory.” 34 years later, this still rings true.
Lennart Meri was in office when the rules of European security were rewritten. Today, we find ourselves in another formative stage.
And today, just like in the 1990s, the path forward will not be straight. History is only linear when you look in the rearview mirror.
At every stage, critical decisions – or failures to make decisions – can change the course that we find ourselves on.
The courage, determination and vision of individual people will make a difference.
Just ask yourselves: what would have happened if President Zelenskyy had decided to leave Kyiv in the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion?
I think that Europe can stand up for itself, and that Sweden and Estonia can continue to play key roles in making that happen. Here’s how.
First, we need to increase support to Ukraine.
Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about who should represent Europe in negotiations.
But there is nothing to suggest that Russia is ready to seriously negotiate.
Therefore, I think we should focus on what really matters: protecting Ukraine’s skies, keeping Ukrainian homes warm, and saving lives.
Sweden and Estonia are two of Ukraine’s strongest supporters, especially if you look at the support per capita.
Soon, Swedish Gripen fighter jets will become an important asset for Ukraine’s air defence.
However, it is clear that Europe as a whole is not doing enough.
In absolute numbers, Sweden’s bilateral support to Ukraine is greater than that of France, Italy, and Spain – economies that are far larger than ours.
As I see it, there are three primary ways to increase support to Ukraine: bilaterally, through EU loans, or by using the frozen Russian assets.
Sadly, some EU Member States and some political parties say no to all three of these solutions. I find this unjustifiable.
Because what is at stake in Ukraine is not isolated to Ukraine.
We saw that in Leipzig, where German authorities prevented an attempted Russian drone sabotage attack.
We have seen it here in Estonia, where an arson attack against a defence industry company was commissioned by Russian security services.
What we’ve seen, time and time again, is that Russia sees the war against Ukraine as a war against the West over Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine and the hostile acts carried out by Russia all over Europe are two sides of the same coin.
We did not want, choose, or cause this confrontation – Russia’s leadership did.
That is why supporting Ukraine is so crucial. Because it’s not just an investment in their security, but also in ours.
This brings me to my second point: we should use the frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine.
In total, there are 210 million euro in frozen Russian central bank assets in the EU.
Using them would almost double the total support that the EU has provided to Ukraine so far.
I know there are many EU Member States that are sceptical about this proposal.
The key here will be to make sure that the risk rests with all Member States if Russia were to make this issue into a legal battle.
I trust that the European Commission can come up with a new proposal, and I think that the time is right.
Because using the frozen Russian assets would be a game changer. And a game changer is exactly what Ukraine needs right now.
Third, if we want Russia to engage in serious negotiations, we need to add pressure to show that Europe has leverage.
There are those who claim that the Russian economy is strong and that Western sanctions don’t work. Most notably, the Russian leadership is pushing this narrative.
But this is simply not true.
A study by the UK Government has shown that international sanctions have cost Russia more than 450 billion dollars since February 2022. Swedish intelligence has also shown that Russia’s economy is much weaker than official statistics suggest.
One way we can know this is by looking at night-time brightness, which is an established way of assessing economic data in countries where statistics cannot be trusted.
So the sanctions against the Russian shadow fleet, against the defence industry, and against oligarchs – all this is working.
We can’t change President Putin’s aim to control Ukraine, but we can change how much it will cost him.
Last but not least, the most important way to strengthen European security is for Europe itself to take greater responsibility.
The way I see it, it is only logical for Europe to assume greater responsibility in NATO.
Sweden is taking its obligations in this regard very seriously.
We’re aiming to increase our defence spending rapidly. We’re contributing substantially through our military presence in Latvia and in the Baltic Sea. And our defence industry is a valuable asset both to us and our Allies.
And with Sweden as part of the NATO Alliance – something that my party worked towards for a long time – our security is bound together. It is indivisible.
* * *
Sweden and Estonia see eye to eye on all these issues.
We are likeminded when it comes to the need to support to Ukraine, to increase pressure on Russia, to maintain constructive transatlantic relations, and to increase defence spending.
But there is one thing that you have here in Estonia that I think is lacking in Sweden, and that is a sense that both time and national identity are precious resources that should not be taken for granted.
To return to Lennart Meri, he once said that “For Estonia, time threatens to become a scarce resource. We must count the weeks and months… The greatest danger is hidden, as ever, in people’s hearts. The danger is the illusion that Estonia might already be done.”
I think this is a lesson that more people in Sweden – and across Europe – should take to heart.
History does not have a beginning or an end, and the work to build our nations, our security, and our prosperity is never done.
* * *
I said that I would both begin and end on Ukraine, and I will.
Because I simply can’t stop thinking about little Angelina.
After a while, I realised that a year earlier, I had talked about another little girl named Angelina in my annual speech at the opening of the UN General Assembly.
She was killed by a Russian missile, and the only thing that could be saved from the rubble was the giant teddy bear from her birthday party.
Will we read about yet another Angelina in a year’s time?
I’ve mentioned history several times in this speech.
And I think that the questions that we face now have to do with what the history books of the future will say.
Did Europe continue to buy oil and gas that fuelled Russia’s war economy?
Did we use the frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine?
Did we provide enough military support to keep Ukraine – and by extension, all of Europe – safe?
These are the fundamental questions for European security at the moment. I am confident that at this juncture, Sweden and Estonia stand on the right side of history.
Thank you.
